Prognosis of Trump’s Policy on Cuba Following Castro’s Death

US President Barack Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro shaking hands at an event signaling restored relations between the two countries. Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons

In March 2015, extensive changes on U.S.-Cuba trade, travel, and financial deals were unveiled by the Obama administration. With that, the tourism ban on tourist visits to Cuba was effectively lifted following the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries late in 2014.

Now that Fidel Castro is dead and the U.S. will have a new president, the question is what will happen to the Cuba policies that were forged by President Obama. There is speculation that the financial and trade policies will be pushed back when president-elect Donald Trump takes office in January. Others think that the recent development is putting pressure on Trump, because he promised earlier to reverse the agreements made to Cuba by the outgoing U.S. president.

Possibilities

It is possible for president-elect Trump to undo the agreements made by Obama, but Trump will have to face the U.S. companies that have already heavily invested in Cuba based on the policies of the Obama administration. These companies are quite large, which include U.S. phone carriers that have already signed roaming deals, technology providers, hotels and major airlines.

According to the top aides of Trump, the president-elect would push the Cuban government to allow more economic and religious freedoms and the release of political prisoners. The incoming White House chief of staff, Reince Priebus, said that if Trump does not get what he wants from Cuba, he would absolutely reverse the current administration’s Cuba policies. Trump could also reverse the policy on individual travel to Cuba without a tour group. In 2015, 700,000 Americans visited Cuba. Commercial flights from the U.S. started in September. American Airlines is planning to expand its service, adding flights to Havana from Charlotte, N.C. and Miami.

Cuba Policies

When Pres. Obama announced that relations with Cuba would start to normalize in December 2014, the embassies in both countries reopened and travel and trade relations with Cuba were loosened. Still Congress did not allow the lifting of the economic embargo. Entities that would most likely be hit hard should the policies be reversed by Trump are the U.S. businesses that are using state-owned distributors as middlemen to deliver services to the private sector.

The U.S. farming industry stands to gain under Obama’s Cuba policy. The president of the Minnesota Farm Bureau, Kevin Paap said that he does not want the incoming administration to place the U.S. farmers at a disadvantage. He added that he does not want the U.S. to lose its dwindling market share in Cuba to Argentina, Brazil and the European Union.

While the White House is doubling its efforts to help U.S. companies in their new investments in Cuba before President Obama’s term ends, it is now unclear how Castro’s death will affect these efforts. New announcement on trade and business deals are supposed to be released soon.

Many more are hoping that Trump will seize the opportunity of Castro’s death to bring about further normalization of ties between the two countries. They are hoping that instead of rescinding the efforts that have been made, Trump will build on what has been established. Experts believe the businesses to be affected should Trump revoke the Cuba policies of Obama might explore legal action against the new administration.