The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued the six-month Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. The outlook released by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center covers a period that starts on June 1 and ends on November 30. The forecast is for an active or extremely active hurricane season for 2013. Most Atlantic storms develop in the months of August, September, and October.
The hurricane outlook is not a prediction of where the storms will hit the Atlantic or Gulf coast or how many will make landfall. Individual forecasts will still be available throughout the season from the National Hurricane Center.
Above seasonal average
The typical seasonal average is three major hurricanes, six hurricanes, and a dozen named storms. The outlook for the season predicts a 70% likelihood of at least 13 to at most 20 named storms with 39 mph winds and higher. Of these storms, around 7 to 11 may develop into hurricanes which are storm systems with wind speeds of 74 mph and higher. Furthermore, 3 to 6 hurricanes of Category 3, 4, or 5 are part of the seasonal forecast. A major hurricane has 111 mph winds or higher.
Atlantic hurricane activity
There are three factors that influence the hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. This year, all three are expected to contribute to the 2013 hurricane prediction. First of all, the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea have warmer than usual water temperatures. Secondly, a strong West African monsoon has been influencing the high activity of hurricanes since 1995. And thirdly, there is no El Niño this year to prevent the formation of storm systems. The combination of these atmospheric and oceanic conditions will be causing the level of activity of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. NOAA scientists say that there are no factors expected to develop that will suppress hurricane activity this season.
Life-saving forecasts
NOAA has renewed its commitment to provide forecasts designed to save lives at the wake of the destruction brought about by Hurricane Sandy in October 2012. With another extremely active season forecasted, the agency hopes to prepare Americans for what is to come, according to Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, the acting Administrator of NOAA.
Dr. Sullivan is also reminding people that hurricanes and tropical storms do not just affect the coastline though that is where they make landfall. Rain and wind also impact regions further inland. These areas may also experience severe flooding and tornadoes may also develop and cause devastation.
May 26 to June 1: National Hurricane Preparedness Week
Next week, in observance of National Hurricane Preparedness Week, NOAA will provide resources in order to help residents of hurricane-prone areas, including audio-video announcements and hurricane-preparedness tips and guidelines.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) will be working with NOAA in providing public service advisories and other services throughout the season. FEMA associate administrator for Response and Recovery Joe Nimmich said that the start of this year’s hurricane season should be a reminder to everyone to get ready. He added that this is a “very dangerous” season and those who are not prepared are likely to end up a statistic. The seasonal outlook from NOAA should already incite people into taking necessary measures for their protection.
Photo Credit: Hurricane Sandy
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