44 days to go …

Tonight, Alistair Darling, chairman of the Better Together pro-union campaign, will participate in a televised debate against the first minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond, a representative of the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) that cofounded the Yes Scotland campaign. The protracted negotiations to secure the event lasted for numerous weeks, as issues, such as Salmond’s insistence on debating British prime minister David Cameron, were raised by both sides. For anyone who feels new to the historic independence referendum that will be held in Scotland on September 18, 2014, a review of the northern UK nation’s entire history, dating back to the 9th century, will situate today’s political landscape at the far end of a consistently lively timeline.

The last mile
For Neal Ascherson, the New York Times’ longtime Scotland correspondent, next month’s referendum is the “last mile” in the latest era of the debate, which began in the 18th century. It was on the first day of May 1707 that the United Kingdom (UK) was formally created after the Kingdom of England (which included Wales) and the Kingdom of Scotland agreed to unite under the terms of the “Treaty of Union.” Ascherson’s first encounter of significance with the issue occurred in 1979, when a referendum on self-government arose from the momentum of an independence debate that was reinvigorated by the discovery of oil in the North Sea off the Scottish coast. A 1974 report commissioned by the UK government concluded that oil would give Scotland one of Europe’s strongest currencies; however, an insufficient turnout on voting day meant that the referendum results were invalid.

Despite the 1979 outcome, the matter of independence progressed further nearly 20 years later when another referendum was held in 1997. The Scottish Labour Party emerged victorious from the elections of that year and Labour MP Donald Dewar, who became the Secretary of State for Scotland and was a staunch advocate for devolution, agreed to the proposals for the re-establishment of a Scottish Parliament. On that occasion, nearly three-quarters of those who voted supported the plan and the UK government subsequently approved the Scotland Act 1998. Since the resounding “yes” vote of 1997, an elected parliament has overseen most of Scotland’s affairs, and the distinctive blue-and-white of St. Andrew’s Cross has flown alongside the Union Jack and the flag of the European Union (EU) outside Edinburgh’s parliamentary building.

Forecasting the future
As is the case when any contentious subject is put to a vote, the campaigning has been intensive this year in the lead-up to September 18. The SNP announced its intention to stage a referendum seven years ago, but it was only after the 2011 election that the current process was confirmed—passions have been building in the meantime. At the forefront of both sides’ outreach has been economics, as the world continues to deal with the effects of last decade’s global recession. The assurance of economic stability has underpinned the “no” vote.

In mid-2014, both sides released economic papers, but the Scottish constituency was merely asked to choose the most convincing presentation, as deeper insight did not appear to be forthcoming. On the one hand, the Scottish government’s pro-independence report suggested that Scottish citizens will gain an annual £1,000 (US$1,687)-benefit apart from the UK, while a UK Treasury-sponsored report published a yearly gain of £1,400 (US$2,362) for a unionized Scotland.

Predictions and data also emerged from numerous sources outside of the opposing teams. Following the release of the aforementioned economic predictions, think tank Fiscal Affairs Scotland claimed that Scotland’s deficit would be worse than the UK’s by up to £900 (US$1,518) per head during the first year of independence, unless oil revenues doubled or Scotland halved its expected share of the UK’s debts. Then, the Reserve Bank of Scotland (RBS) raised further concerns last month by stating that a “vote in favor of independence would be likely to significantly impact the [RBS] group’s credit ratings” and “may also affect Scotland’s status in the EU.”

The BBC’s news service avoided ambiguity on July 25 by using data from the World Bank and the UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS). According to the BBC analysis, a successful “yes” vote in September will mean:

• the UK loses 32% of its land and 8% of its population, thereby making it the 29th most
densely populated country in the world
• the UK loses 7.1% of its exports, worth £16.9 billion (US$28.5 billion)
• the life expectancy of Scottish males will increase by 0.4 years (4.8 months), while Scottish
women will gain 0.3 years (3.6 months)

The great debate
Tonight’s debate will commence at 8 p.m. BST (3 p.m. EST) on Scotland’s STV channel and viewers may or may not see the effect of the Better Together campaign’s joint statement, which was launched in Glasgow this morning. Cosigned by Prime Minister Cameron, Scottish Labour leader Ed Miliband and deputy prime minister Nick Clegg, the cross-party pledge reveals a commitment from Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats to grant Scotland increased power over domestic taxes and parts of the social security system if it stays with the UK. The Scottish government immediately opposed the document, and Salmond’s spokesperson referred to “vague promises” that had been attempted previously. Only time can tell whether any of Scotland’s five million-plus voters will awake tomorrow with a new perspective on the future of Scotland.